The Dragon Has Landed: What does the Chinese incursion into J&K mean?

China knows that Daulat Beg is a strategic asset for India as this 16,700 feet airstrip in Aksai Chin area is the world’s highest airstrip and is very close to the China border.

Apr 21, 2013

http://www.firstpost.com/world/the-dragon-has-landed-what-does-the-chinese-incursion-into-jk-mean-716450.html

By Rajeev Sharma

Just when India-China bilateral engagement is peaking up, to and fro highest level visits are being planned and a calendar for the next round of Special Representatives’ level talks on the boundary issue is being prepared by the two sides, suddenly there is a flash in the pan. China has come up with perhaps the most ambitious, brazen and evidently well thought out incursion into the Indian territory.

On 15 April, 2013, several dozen soldiers of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) entered as deep as ten kilometers inside the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control in Daulat Beg in Ladakh (Jammu and Kashmir) and set up a camp there.

The audacity of the Chinese operation is reflected from the fact that their ground troops were given cover and logistic help by two helicopters to enable them to set up a camp on the Indian territory.

Why did the Chinese choose Daulat Beg? Does this hitherto-unknown place hold any strategic significance? Reuters

Mercifully, the Indian response this time is neither meek nor knee jerk. Within two days of the Chinese putting up a camp in Daulat Beg, the Indian Army dispatched the 5th Battalion of Ladakh Scouts which set up its own camp barely 500 meters away from the Chinese camp.

The latest update available on the Daulat Beg situation on Saturday evening is that the Chinese troops are still there. The Indian troops are also there.

The upshot is that not a shot has been fired from either side but the India-China border can hardly be described as “tranquil”.

Why Daulat Beg?

Why did the Chinese choose Daulat Beg? Does this hitherto-unknown place hold any strategic significance?

The Chinese have not forgotten that it was at this place where the Indians had set up its landing strip during the 1962 Sino-Indian War. India reopened this strip and operationalized it five years ago. If a war were to break out between India and China, Daulat Beg would be a key frontline airstrip to launch air strikes against the Chinese.

China knows that Daulat Beg is a strategic asset for India as this 16,700 feet airstrip in Aksai Chin area is the world’s highest airstrip and is very close to the China border. The Indian Air Force operated Packet aircraft from this strip between 1962 and 1965.

The Indian Response

There has been no formal response from the UPA government on the continuing standoff and it is not likely also. China is not Pakistan. The Ministry of External Affairs handles China with utmost sensitivity. Whether this approach is right or wrong is another matter but this is a factual position.

Government sources, however, gave a fairly elaborate reaction to the latest Chinese provocation as follows:

“This is an area where there have been differing perceptions of the Line of Actual Control. Incidents do occur and are resolved peacefully on the basis of bilateral agreements which exist and mechanisms provided for in these agreements.
“Both sides are in touch on this availing the Working mechanism for consultation and coordination on India-China border Affairs which is headed by the Joint Secretary (East Asia) in the Ministry of External Affairs and the Director General Border Affairs of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“We are confident that the current incident too will also be peacefully resolved on this basis.”

Reading the Chinese Tea Leaves

Trying to comprehend the Chinese tactics (whether ‘art of war’ or ‘art of peace’) is like reading the Chinese tea leaves.

The Chinese are pastmasters in the art of dodging and playing shoot-and-scoot diplomacy, mixing it well with lot of defence posturing. The Daulat Beg provocation has come when senior Indian officials discussed ways to collaborate on international forums more proactively and just three days before the two sides held their first-ever bilateral dialogue on Afghanistan.

The two sides have resumed their military dialogue as well as military-to-military exchanges. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is preparing to visit China sometime in June this year. The new Chinese Premier or President too is likely to visit Idnia around that time.

And yet the Chinese choreographed this provocation! Confused? Well, by now the Indians are well versed in the art of reading the Chinese tea leaves. The Chinese are no longer an enigma wrapped inside a riddle. The Daulat Beg incursion is aimed at only one thing: to demonstrate to the Indian leadership that the boundary dispute is still alive and needs to be sorted out expeditiously no matter the two sides are looking at $ 100 billion bilateral trade in a year or two.

Though China knows it is not dealing with an India of 1962, the difference between the defense might between the two nuclear-armed neighbours still remains like the difference between day and night. The Chinese are still way ahead of the Indians in every respect, though they know it well that in case of another military conflict this time they will be given a bloody nose.

The Daulat Beg incursion is just a posturing from the Chinese which is meant to be sorted out in a few days after it has served its diplomatic purpose and rationale. However, China committed a mistake by hoisting a war on India in 1962 over the territory issue. The 1962 war virtually formalized and sanctified the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the eyes of the world just as Pakistan’s misadventure in imposing the Kargil War on India in 1999 virtually sanctified the Line of Control (LoC) before the international community.

The writer is a Firstpost columnist and a strategic affairs analyst who can be reached at bhootnath004@yahoo.com.

No Ram Navmi puja at Ayodhya site this year: District administration

Press Trust of India | Posted on Apr 15, 2013 at 11:02pm IST
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/no-ram-navmi-puja-at-ayodhya-site-this-year-district-administration/385571-3-242.html

Ayodhya: The 64-year-old practice of performing rituals at the disputed site in Ayodhya on Ram Navami may face a halt in 2013 as district administration has decided not to allow any religious activity in the area.

Only court appointed priest, Acharya Satyender Das, has been allowed to perform religious activities on the 67 acre land, which had been taken over by the Centre.
However, for the last 19 years, locals associated with the Ram Janma Bhoomi Seva Samiti have been performing prayers at the disputed site on Ram Navami, which falls on April 19, 2013.

The SC had ordered status quo on 67 acre land adjacent to the disputed site in Ayodhya and restrained any kind of religious activity in the area.

On January 28, 2013, Supreme Court had ordered status quo on 67 acre land adjacent to the disputed site here and restrained any kind of religious activity in the area.
Speaking to PTI, District Magistrate Faizabad Vipin Kumar Dwivedi said, "We will ensure that no religious sentiments are hurt. But, we will abide by the Supreme Court's orders and maintain status quo, as defined in various judgements."
After strong opposition from the oldest litigant of Babri Masjid case, Hashim Ansari, the local administration may not allow religious activities this year.
"We were objecting violation of the court's orders for the last 19 years, and, this time, we approached the observers appointed by Supreme Court," said Khaliq Ahmad Khan, a petitioner in the case.

Cheap Fodder For Slaughter

TEHELKA accompanied a team of animal welfare officers and the local police that carried out a raid on an illegal abattoir in Solapur district.

Prakhar Jain

2013-03-23 , Issue 12 Volume 10
http://tehelka.com/cheap-fodder-for-slaughter/

Left in the lurch Farmers are selling cattle in distress because it costs Rs 130 to feed a bullock every day. Photo: Shailendra Pandey

EARLY MORNING at the Osmanabad cattle market. A young man waits to sell his pair of rugged-looking bullocks. Within minutes a customer arrives and the bargaining begins. The seller refuses to budge from his price. “Because of the drought, I’ll have to sell my bulls at an awfully low price,” says Bhau Ganpat Chauhan, the seller, “But I won’t sell them for the pittance that man was offering.”
Chauhan’s 15-acre farm has yielded nothing this season. He needs the money so that his nine-member family and their remaining livestock can survive. The customer, Chauhan says, is actually a middleman who buys livestock in bulk and sells them to rich farmers and to abattoirs in Mumbai and Hyderabad. The bargaining continues intermittently for half an hour with a confident Chauhan sticking to his price. “The bullocks are worth much more than their price. They could have earned me Rs 700 a day during the farming season.”
After much haggling and a discount, a deal is struck. As soon as Chauhan gets his initial advance, he turns around and smacks the bullocks hard. “It’s a tradition,” he says, “to show that one has broken all emotional ties with the animal.”
Chauhan says it costs approximately Rs 130 per day to feed a bullock. He cannot afford to spend that amount, nor can he send the bullocks to any fodder camp because there are none near his house.
After buying the family’s rations, there would be little left from the cash he got by selling the bullocks, and he is worried how to survive the next few months.
Cattle bought by middlemen often end up in illegal abattoirs that have mushroomed across Maharashtra. TEHELKA accompanied a team of animal welfare officers and the local police that carried out a raid on one such illegal establishment in Solapur district.
During the raid, 25 animals, including two bullocks and a cow, were seized. All of them were found to be healthy, though animal protection laws in Maharashtra do not permit the slaughter of any healthy animal, especially cows and bullocks. A veterinary doctor is required to certify if an animal can be slaughtered, but the abattoir’s owner had not bothered about this requirement.
Remains of a large number of slaughtered animals were strewn all over the abattoir premises. It was obviously doing good business. Carcasses of about 30 animals killed that morning were also found ready for transportation. The person running the abattoir alleged he had been singled out even though there are several illegal slaughterhouses across the district.
Vilas Shah, an animal welfare officer since the 1960s, claims the number of animals sent to abattoirs has doubled over the past one year. TEHELKA found that the number of animals sold legally has increased by 43 percent in Jalna district. The sale of goats at the Osmanabad cattle market too has doubled in the past two years, while the sale of bullocks has increased by nearly 25 percent.
While more and more livestock are being sold in distress, the farmers are worried about the next monsoon. Without enough draught animals to plough the fields, they would have to hire tractors at exorbitant rates. “We will either have to buy a new pair of bullocks at a higher price, or hire a tractor for 500 per hour. There is no other way to survive,” says Chauhan.

"Boston Bombing Was Meant to Deliver a Message"

Egyptian Cleric (On a TV Show) : Boston Bombing Was Meant to Deliver a Message ; Similar Attacks Expected in France, France ...which led the first crusade.

"This was not up to the standard of Al Qaida , it was extremely amateurish. "

"They ( bombers) have managed to get the message across : We can reach you whenever and wherever we want."

"I do not rule out the possibility that this was carried out by the people born in America." 

"The path of Al-Qaida is path of Koran."

 youtube link-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrLsz-AIuzY&feature=youtu.be

As the Brahmaputra bends

P. Stobdan

India must use the upswing in ties with China to secure a legal agreement.

China has caused some confusion in India over its Brahmaputra (Yarlung-Tsangpo) diversion plan. Recently, Water Resource Minister Harish Rawat allayed fears about Chinese projects affecting India’s water usage. Yet an inter-ministerial panel report asked the government to closely monitor China’s plan for a series of cascading run-of-river projects in the middle reaches of the river. It also cautioned that China might replicate the same sort of project at the Great Bend at Shuomatan Point. When Prime Minister Manmohan Singh proposed a joint mechanism for verification at Durban last month, Xi Jinping gave no clear answer except reiterating that China would bear in mind its responsibilities and the interests of riparian states.

India’s heightened edginess stems from China’s opaque position. The latter’s official organs deny the diversion project but its hydro power lobby is pressing for a mega project at the Great Bend that would meet China’s water woes. So far, there is no evidence of diversion except for China’s plan to build a series of run-of-river projects at Zangmu, Dagu, Jiacha, Jiexu, Zongda, Lengda, and Langzhen. But the issue needs to be analysed in a broader perspective.

China is entitled to take up these projects, so long as the existing flow of 79 billion cubic metres (BCM) water into India remains unimpeded. Most of the Brahmaputra’s catchment area, providing over 600 BCM average runoff, falls within Arunachal Pradesh. The volume becomes 10 times higher during the monsoon. Allowing China to divert a constant volume of water during that period could help mitigate floods in India and Bangladesh. Non-consumptive exploiting of water by China for power generation may also be beneficial for India, as the flow is expected to increase by 10-20 per cent during the dry season. China selling surplus electricity to India may not be a bad idea.

But a Chinese plan to build a 40,000 MW dam at the Great Bend could have a perilous downstream impact. The Great Bend is at a geologically fragile knick-zone with very rapid bedrock exhumation rates. In case of an earthquake, there could be ominous consequences for millions living in downstream areas.

The problem lies in China’s growing domestic water crisis, arising from the industrial upsurge. It is said to be a potential catalyst for domestic turmoil. The need to exploit trans-border rivers is therefore gaining new currency. The original idea of shuo-tian (reverse flow) and xibu da kaifa (great western extraction), supported by 118 PLA generals, was aimed at building a dam to generate 40,000 MW of hydro power and to divert 200 BCM water annually to the north. The diversion project was part of China’s $60-billion South-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP), aimed at sending 40 BCM of water annually from the Yangtze and the Yellow Rivers to the arid north. The first phase of the SNWTP was completed in March 2013. The middle route will feed water to the north by 2014. The third stage involves the Tsangpo’s diversion. For China, the stakes are huge. It could turn millions of arid hectares into arable land.

China is not known for consulting riparian states before building dams. Until 2005, India was unaware about the Zada dam on the Sutlej basin and even appeared clueless when the Chinese announced they were building dams at Dagu, Jiacha, and Jiexu. Little is known about the Shiquanhe project on the Singe-Tsangpo (Indus River). Locals have observed the Singe-Tsangpo too has been tapering over the years. Beijing is said to be reluctant to exchange data with India, despite a treaty that has been in place since 2006. In the absence of legal arrangements, other riparian states too are worried about China’s plans. The Xiaowan dam on the Mekong has been stirring up passions across Southeast Asia. Latest to join the chorus is Myanmar, vehemently opposing China building the Myitsone mega-dam on the upper Irrawaddy. The project could potentially rupture China’s longstanding bonhomie with Myanmar.

But, should the diversion at the Great Bend become a reality, the fear is that China will inevitably leverage Tibetan water as a tool for coercive diplomacy and may even link the water issue to a border settlement. Both China and India will be water stressed, given the rising demand for food security and clean drinking water. China is beginning to treat water as a strategic commodity and building huge infrastructure in Tibet to secure it. But in India, the current debate over water security isn’t as politically nuanced as it ought to be.

The current upswing in relations should be used to resolve the issue with a binding legal agreement. Water scarcity has historically worked in favour of cooperation between states. Both should treat water as a catalyst for cooperation and not conflict. While the demand for Tsangpo’s diversion may get louder, growing environmental disasters are also fuelling mass protests in China against mega projects. In fact, the greater resentment to manipulating the Shuomatan Point could emanate from China. India should evolve a comprehensive strategic plan, which cannot be handled by the water resources ministry alone.

The writer is a former ambassador

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/as-the-brahmaputra-bends/1104650/