Jayadeva Ranade
Kashmir, increasingly regarded internationally in recent years as a potential hotspot of future conflict in South Asia, has been brought into sharp focus by China’s recent actions. Reinforcing its policy of trying to keep India under pressure and contained within the subcontinent, Beijing has apparently decided to henceforth follow a definitively assertive policy regarding its territorial claims in both, the eastern and western, sectors. This could well be reflected in official talks, including on the border issue.
Beijing had equally deliberately re-stated its claim on Arunachal Pradesh, through a statement by its ambassador on the eve of Chinese President Hu Jintao’s arrival in Delhi in 2006.
Events centering on Kashmir have gained in momentum over the past couple of years. US and Chinese interests converge in Pakistan. While the US continues to exert pressure from behind the scenes on Islamabad and New Delhi to work towards a compromise arrangement on Kashmir and has nudged India into taking conciliatory steps, China has lately opted for more assertive and direct action. China departed from usual practice and raised the ante by publicising its hardened stance on Kashmir. Significantly, Beijing timed its decision to coincide with the volatile situation that began developing in Kashmir in June.
Beijing’s reluctance to accept a routinely proposed visit of the Northern Army Commander, on the pretext that his operational jurisdiction includes the ‘disputed area of Jammu and Kashmir’, reflected its hardened stance. With this action, Beijing has expanded its objections to the inclusion of residents of Jammu and Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh in official or quasi-official delegations, while reiterating the ‘disputed’ status of both these states of India.
In another action reported to have occurred in Shanghai last month, personnel of China’s Public Security Bureau strode into the India Pavilion in Shanghai Expo-2010 and seized printed material depicting India’s territorial boundaries.
China’s latest actions regarding Kashmir follow a predetermined pattern. Since early last year, Beijing commenced issuing loose-leaf visas to residents of Jammu and Kashmir, thus signalling that it considered the entire state as ‘disputed’. Beijing has not rescinded this decision despite protests by India. Such a major decision impacting on Sino-India ties can only have been taken at the highest echelons of the Chinese Communist Party and government.
Maps and brochures depicting Kashmir as a separate entity also began being distributed to visitors to Tibet since last October. For many years, China’s defence attaché in Delhi has declined to participate in visits to Jammu and Kashmir organised by the ministry of defence on the plea that it was a ‘disputed area’. In stark contrast, visits are regularly exchanged between officials from China and Pak-occupied Kashmir (PoK), Chinese military delegations visit PoK and Chinese state-owned companies are engaged in an estimated over 60 projects in PoK in addition to regularly repairing the Karakoram Highway.
By neglecting Indian sensitivities, Beijing has de facto narrowed the dispute only to the portion of Kashmir within India. Beijing can now be expected to emphasise Kashmir’s ‘disputed’ status including by objecting to financial assistance from international organisations.
Beijing’s overtly assertive actions follow two summit meetings between US President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao. China’s official news agency Xinhua reported that during their September meeting Hu Jintao urged Obama that “the two countries should push for a proper resolution to the regional issues relating to the Korean Peninsula, Iran and South Asia”. Just before the summit, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Zhengyue announced China’s willingness to mediate between India and Pakistan if requested and repeated the offer twice soon after.
Hurriyat ‘leader’ Mirwaiz Umar Farooq asserted that China has a role in the settlement of the Kashmir issue. His disclosure that he will be travelling to Beijing soon after Eid reinforces suspicion that Washington and Beijing have discussed Kashmir, possibly keeping Islamabad in the loop.
While US and China share short-term interests in Afghanistan, China has long-term plans that include a railway from western China through Tajikstan into Afghanistan and on to Pakistan, with its attendant strategic implications. China already has massive investments in Pakistan. Upgradation and extension of the Karakoram highway, a China-Pakistan railway over the Karakoram and gas pipeline running along the same alignment, are planned.
Current developments in Pakistan are, however, a source of concern and China would be preparing to safeguard its investments. A well informed Chinese paper observed: “The question of how to overcome political instability in some areas of Pakistan will be the key to success of the construction of the (proposed) railway. The constant struggles among domestic political factions and unresolved religious and secular conflicts in Pakistan will create a huge test for the normal operation of the China-Pakistan railway. If the China-Pakistan railway, which will cost billions of Yuans to build, cannot be used effectively because of domestic chaos in Pakistan, it will no doubt have a negative effect on China’s strategic intentions.”
The recent warmth in US-India relations has caused Beijing some apprehension and generated numerous critical references in China’s authoritative official media and by its military and strategic analysts. Critical references were noticed in recent weeks when tensions were high because of the US-South Korea military exercises in the Yellow Sea. During this period the Chengdu Military Region conducted at least three military exercises inside Tibet across India’s borders.
China’s strategy of confining India within the subcontinent and keeping it under pressure by bolstering Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal remains unchanged. China has added military muscle to diplomatic and political pressure and is asserting itself regarding Arunachal Pradesh. Kashmir will henceforth be an additional source of pressure. India has limited time to respond, especially if it wants to prevent a coalescing of Sino-Pakistan collusion on Kashmir.
A good beginning was made in demonstrating resolve when the prime minister visited Tawang and the Dalai Lama travelled to Arunachal Pradesh and Tawang. This was again evidenced when the prime minister met the Dalai Lama.
India must send an unequivocal signal that its territorial sovereignty will not be compromised and it will not tolerate outside interference. It also will have to assert its ‘core national interests’
About the author:
Jayadeva Ranade is a former additional secretary in the Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India
http://expressbuzz.com/opinion/op-ed/china-raises-ante-in-jk/207106.html
No comments:
Post a Comment