Chinese chequers in PoK

Vikram Sood

In the context of China’s protestations on Arunachal Pradesh, its hardening attitude on Jammu & Kashmir is reflected in the continuing visa row. This is to remind us that both the western and eastern portions of the India-China border remain disputed. Also, China is making its presence felt in the sub-continent as the next power to reckon with

Farooq Abdullah spoke with the usual fervour and passion when Parliament discussed Jammu & Kashmir on August 26. He pointed out that most Kashmiris wanted to solve their problems within India and not in Pakistan, China or America. This should not surprise anyone because Pakistan today looks a hopeless proposition to many Pakistanis too.

The former Chief Minister of Jammu & Kashmir made another very valid and important observation when he referred to parts of Kashmir under Pakistan’s occupation. He reminded the House of the Resolution passed several years ago saying that the entire State including Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan were an integral part of India. He demanded that India should seek the return of these territories, including that which Pakistan had illegally handed over to China.

It was, however, disturbing to find that the Treasury benches and even other stalwarts from the Opposition were eloquent in their silence, something that has become part of an ominous trend in the last few years. In February 2007, the US Congressional Research Service put out a thoroughly incongruous map of India which showed Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir as parts of Pakistan and Aksai Chin as merely an Indian claim, but we did not protest. When Baroness Emma Nicholson, the EU Rapporteur to Jammu & Kashmir in her report to the EU confirmed from historical evidence dating from 1909 that Gilgit-Baltistan were parts of the Riyasat of Maharaja Hari Singh, we only murmured modestly. It was perhaps awkward for us to assert our right lest Gen Pervez Musharraf, with whom we were working out some unknown deal, got upset. Clearly, we had put aside long term geostrategic interests or simply not read them.

Since the 1970s Pakistan has been nibbling away at Gilgit-Baltistan in an effort to detach it from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir to make the region an integral part of the rest of Pakistan. The Karakoram highway is a strategic life line for both China and Pakistan. Ruthless suppression of the Shia Ismaili minority and demographic changes by sending in Sunni Pushtoon was the favoured tactic of the various dictators to tame this remote region that borders Afghanistan and China. Not satisfied with access to Xinjiang through the Khunjerab Pass on the Karakoram Highway, Gen Zia-ul Haq tried to enhance Pakistani and Chinese positions when he moved towards the Karakoram Pass across the Siachen glacier. Had this move succeeded, China would have had an alternative access to Pakistan through Tibet with immense permanent consequences for our security and geostrategic interests.

China has always been interested that Pakistan retains control over Gilgit-Baltistan. This not only ensured its own vital interests in Gwadar overlooking the Persian Gulf and its vital resources but also was another brick in the wall against India’s access to Central Asia. About three years ago, there were reports that China was incorporating the Gilgit-Baltistan area into Xinjiang’s logistic grid by widening the highway and exploring the possibilities of a Pakistan-China rail link, with the ultimate aim of securing a land route for its energy supplies.

Recent reports of the presence of 7,000 to 11,000 PLA troops in the region and a simmering revolt there would suggest that Pakistan has sought Chinese assistance to tackle this crisis. This is an addition to other no-go areas for the Pakistani administration, which include Balochistan and FATA. Besides we must not overlook that there are US bases west of Indus and more than 1,000 US Marines have landed in Pakistan, ostensibly for flood relief.

In the context of Chinese protestations on Arunachal Pradesh, their hardening attitude on Jammu & Kashmir is reflected in the continuing visa issue now that a serving Lt General of the Indian Army has been denied this. China has chosen this period in time to remind us that both the western and eastern portions of the India-China border remain disputed. This is as much a reflection of its unease about growing India-US relations as India’s opposition to the China-Pakistan nuclear deal. China has raised its profile in the Jammu & Kashmir region even though its relations with the US are tense in the South China Sea. All things considered, China is making its presence felt in the sub-continent as the next power to reckon with.

Now, more than any other time, and given the evolving situation to our disadvantage, it is necessary that we address our own problem in the Valley and get out of this endless cycle of protests, sops and promises. Winning hearts and minds does not begin or end with elections. Jammu & Kashmir has far better socio-economic indicators than many other parts of India. Its literacy rate is on par with the rest of the country; the State Government employs more than 35,0000 people while Rajasthan, which is five times the size of Jammu & Kashmir, employs only 60,0000 people; for the Tenth Five-Year-Plan, Jammu & Kashmir got a per capita allocation of Rs 14,399 compared to States like Bihar (Rs 2,536) and Odisha (Rs 5,177); the State’s per capita income of Rs 12,399 a few years ago was lower than the national average but considerably higher than States like Bihar (Rs 5,108) or Odisha (Rs 8,547).

Appeasement is not the answer nor does the route lie via Pakistan. Additional economic or financial sops are not required; what is needed is a sense of fair play and justice seen to be delivered. If we need the Armed Forces Special Powers Act to remain then we must also ensure that the perpetrators of the Machhil monstrosity are brought to public trial soon. Leaders in Jammu & Kashmir, across the political spectrum, must learn to accept that the practice of incessant political mismanagement and then blaming New Delhi, when the streets erupt, has to cease.

Jammu & Kashmir has a population of a little more than 10 million; only a section of the population in the Valley talks of self-determination. Surely this cannot hold a billion of us to ransom. As for this constant refrain of political problems, Jammu & Kashmir has its own Constitution, Article 370 and bounty for being troublesome. There is no ‘good boy bonus’ for the other States. When the US floods Pakistan with money and goodies, we complain that this is aiding terrorism. Are we not doing the same thing in Kashmir then?

A state has to be just, not soft; it has to be sympathetic, not indulgent. Jammu & Kashmir needs good governance in all its manifestations; so do we all. For those who talk of azadi, let it be said that we attained our independence in 1947. There is no greater independence than that.

(The writer, a strategic affairs expert, is former Secretary, Research & Analysis Wing.)
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